Costco poised to capture refund-driven sales surge, pressuring Walmart's Sam’s Club

Costco set to capture spring refund surge, heightening pressure on Walmart’s Sam’s Club

JPMorgan says Costco is poised to be the biggest retail beneficiary of last year’s tax changes as U.S. tax‑filing season begins, a development that puts pressure on Walmart’s Sam’s Club to respond. The bank argues that because 2025 withholding tables remain unchanged, many taxpayers receive the law’s benefit through larger refunds this spring, and Costco’s geographic footprint and higher‑income member base make it likelier to convert those refunds into big‑ticket and higher‑margin purchases. Shopper data from Numerator, cited by JPMorgan, shows Costco skews toward mid‑to‑high‑income households and carries a broader general merchandise assortment than rivals, which supports the view that refunds translate into outsized spending at the warehouse chain.

The analysis finds Sam’s Club and BJ’s Wholesale carry more low‑end exposure, which could blunt their share of a refund‑driven spending boost. JPMorgan estimates the tax changes could lift core retail sales by more than 1% in 2026, with the impact concentrated during refund season. For Costco, that translates into a potential short‑term demand spike in big‑ticket and high‑margin categories, while rivals face the task of converting smaller, more price‑sensitive households into higher‑value purchases.

For Walmart, the immediate implication centers on Sam’s Club strategy and on broader tactical responses across Walmart’s ecosystem. Sam’s Club may need to accelerate merchandising moves that target higher‑spend members, expand big‑ticket assortments, and sharpen marketing around membership value to capture a larger slice of refund dollars. At the same time, Walmart’s vast grocery and e‑commerce operations can seek to offset any club weakness by leaning into promotions, loyalty programs and targeted advertising to retain households that receive refunds but historically favor warehouse formats.

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