JPMorgan Predicts Tax-Refund "Spring Stimulus" to Boost Costco, High-End Retailers

JPMorgan Predicts Tax-Driven Spring Surge for Certain Retailers

Main development: JPMorgan's analysis highlights Costco as the primary retail beneficiary of last July's federal tax overhaul and related administrative choices that leave many taxpayers with larger refunds this filing season. In a research note led by Christopher Horvers, the bank argues that the Internal Revenue Service's decision to keep 2025 withholding tables unchanged effectively defers much of the law's benefit into tax refunds, creating what JPMorgan calls a "spring tax stimulus" that will lift consumer spending for the 2025 tax year.

Bank research cites shopper-level data from Numerator to explain why warehouse clubs with more affluent memberships stand to gain most. JPMorgan says Costco's geographic footprint and higher-income member demographics produce a spending pattern skewed toward mid-to-high-end and big-ticket general merchandise, which tends to generate higher-margin purchases. By contrast, the bank notes, competitors such as BJ's and Sam's Club show greater exposure to lower-end baskets, making them less likely to capture outsized gains from refund-driven spending.

JPMorgan uses that mix and footprint analysis to argue that Costco is better positioned to convert refunds into higher sales per household than many rivals, and it estimates that the tax changes could boost core retail sales by more than 1% in 2026, with a disproportionate share of the impact concentrated during refund season. The bank frames this as a predictable, seasonal stimulus that will favor retailers whose customers have greater propensity to spend windfalls on discretionary and large-ticket items.

Broader implications for banks and payments

The bank's forecast carries implications for the financial-services ecosystem beyond retail revenues. JPMorgan's view suggests higher card spending and larger transaction sizes at certain merchants during the refund window, which affects card issuers, merchant acquirers and payment processors that track volume and interchange flows. Lenders and credit risk teams also monitor such shifts to adjust short-term exposure and promotional strategies tied to consumer liquidity.

Context and data sources

JPMorgan bases its stance on a combination of tax-law timing, withholding policy and third-party consumer data supplied by Numerator, which provides card-level and basket insights. The firm frames the interaction of policy and household demographics as a near-term macro tailwind for retailers that attract higher-income shoppers and sell more big-ticket items.