Novartis Faces Biggest Loss of Exclusivity, Prioritises Pipeline and Dealmaking
- Novartis expects about $4 billion of sales and nearly equal profits to fall away in H1 from lost exclusivities.
- Novartis will prioritise its late‑stage pipeline and intensify dealmaking to replace lost revenues.
- Novartis is focusing on launch planning, regulatory sequencing, pricing, and targeted deals to mitigate margin pressure.
Novartis confronts biggest-ever hit from loss of exclusivity as 2026 approaches
Pipeline and dealmaking become priority as patent cliff bites Novartis
Novartis is navigating what CEO Vas Narasimhan describes as the “largest set of loss of exclusivities in Novartis’ history,” with the group expecting about $4 billion of sales — and nearly as much in profits — to fall away in the first half of the year. Management frames the erosion as temporary pressure rather than structural decline, emphasising a pipeline of late‑stage assets and other growth drivers that the company expects will underpin medium‑term expansion. The immediate task for Novartis is to shore up near‑term revenue gaps while accelerating internal development and external sourcing of new medicines.
The company is intensifying business development activity as part of that response, aligning dealmaking more tightly with strategic fit and near‑term commercial potential. Across the sector, executives use language such as “bolt‑on” and targeted acquisitions for early‑stage assets, while some are open to larger late‑stage buys to bridge revenue shortfalls faster than organic R&D can. For Novartis, this translates into a two‑pronged approach: prioritise alliances and smaller acquisitions that complement core franchises, and selectively pursue higher‑value transactions where regulatory and commercial timing make sense.
Operationally, Novartis is also focusing on launch planning, regulatory sequencing and pricing strategies to maximise the value of upcoming approvals and to mitigate margin pressure from lost exclusivities. Management is assessing which assets can be accelerated to market, how to sequence geographic rollouts in the face of evolving U.S. and European drug‑pricing rules, and where manufacturing and commercial investments will yield the best return. The company’s internal R&D priorities, alongside targeted external deals, are central to reassuring partners and payors that the group can replace sunset revenues with sustainable growth.
AstraZeneca highlights long runway for new blockbusters
AstraZeneca is projecting a deep pipeline payoff, saying it could deliver up to 25 new blockbuster medicines by 2030 and is targeting roughly $80 billion of revenue compared with about $59 billion in 2025, signalling confidence in late‑stage assets and launches to offset wider industry headwinds.
Sanofi leadership change underlines urgency across the sector
Sanofi’s abrupt removal of CEO Paul Hudson after six years — attributed by observers to underwhelming R&D returns — underscores pressure on big drugmakers to convert research into timely commercial successes and is prompting analysts to watch how 2026 crystallises the impact of prior deals and pricing reforms.