Realtor.com: NYC Rental Market "Locked In" — Rents Rise as Turnover Plummets

Realtor.com: NYC rental market “locked in” as tenants stay put

Realtor.com’s Q4 2025 NYC Rental Report shows New York City entering a pronounced “stay‑in‑place” phase, with 89.3% of renters remaining in the same unit they occupied a year earlier, well above the national average of 78.4%. Median asking rent for the city rises to $3,585 in Q4 2025, a $223 (6.6%) year‑over‑year increase, even as turnover contracts and listings remain scarce. Realtor.com releases the data on Feb. 4, 2026 and its chief economist, Danielle Hale, describes the market as “effectively locked in place.”

Mobility constraints are largely driven by rent stabilization, which covers roughly 40% of the city’s rental stock. Stabilized units show a 0.98% vacancy rate in 2023 versus 1.84% for market‑rate units, indicating far fewer moves among tenants in regulated apartments. Overcrowding — defined as more than two persons per bedroom — is nearly twice as common in stabilized units (13.1%) as in market rentals (6.7%), a pattern that reflects families staying put rather than seeking new, often more expensive, housing.

The confluence of rising asking rents and record‑low turnover intensifies competition for the limited pool of available apartments and worsens affordability across neighborhoods. Realtor.com warns that policy moves could further affect market dynamics: Mayor Mamdani’s proposed rent freeze on stabilized units risks squeezing mobility and shrinking leasable inventory, which Hale says could push market‑rate rents even higher if supply does not expand. The report urges policymakers to pair tenant protections with measures to increase housing supply to avoid unintended tightening of the rental market.

Borough rent details and affordability pressures

The report breaks down median asking rents by borough: Manhattan $4,886 (7.3% YoY; six‑year change 20.1%), Brooklyn $3,943 (5.0% YoY; six‑year change 45.0%), Queens $3,355 (1.2% YoY; six‑year change 38.4%), and the Bronx $3,094 (4.2% YoY; six‑year change 51.2%). Citywide six‑year rent growth is 24.8%. Estimated annual incomes required to keep rent at or below 30% of income range from about $123,756 in the Bronx to $195,440 in Manhattan.

Market signal for policymakers and industry

Realtor.com frames the current pattern as a dual‑sided problem for the housing industry: protections that reduce mobility help tenants but also reduce available units, while rising asking rents squeeze newcomers and lower‑income households. The report signals that without supply expansion, rent‑control measures and freezes may tighten listings further and shift pressure onto market‑rate segments.