Realtor.com: U.S. Rental Market Tilts Toward Tenants as Vacancies Rise, Rents Fall

Tenant Market Gains, Realtor.com Finds

AUSTIN, Texas, Feb 17 — Realtor.com’s January Rental Report shows the U.S. rental market tilting decisively toward tenants as vacancy across the 50 largest metropolitan areas rises to 7.6% in 2025 from 7.2% in 2024. The increase in available units drives the national median asking rent down 1.5% year‑over‑year to $1,672 in January, marking the 29th consecutive month of annual rent declines and giving renters greater choice and bargaining power, Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale says.

The report classifies 22 metros as renter‑friendly (vacancy above 7%), 22 as balanced (vacancy between 5% and 7%) and only six as landlord‑friendly, with notable renter-friendly markets including Birmingham, Austin and Milwaukee. Realtor.com economists emphasize that new construction in parts of the Sun Belt and Midwest is creating negotiating room for tenants, easing upward pressure on rents and shifting bargaining dynamics in leasing negotiations.

Realtor.com frames the trend as a move toward market equilibrium that benefits renters but remains fragile. Continued tenant advantage depends on sustained construction and moderated in‑migration; where demand outpaces new supply, local tightness can return quickly, reversing recent gains and squeezing affordability for renters.

Local reversals and high‑profile flips

The most dramatic single‑market shift appears in Milwaukee, where vacancy more than doubles to 10.8% in 2025 from 4.9% in 2024, illustrating how concentrated construction and declining demand can rapidly tilt a local market. Conversely, formerly affordable, job‑rich metros such as Pittsburgh and Richmond move from renter‑friendly into the balanced category as out‑of‑market demand from renters relocating from pricier cities absorbs excess vacancy, Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu notes.

Policy, zoning and the pace of development

The report warns that zoning, permitting and local housing policy will matter for whether tenant advantages persist, since supply responses are uneven. Realtor.com underscores that without ongoing construction and policy support to increase housing supply, renter leverage created by current vacancy levels could disappear as quickly as it emerges.