Realtor.com: Vacancy Surge Gives Renters Leverage; National Rents Fall 1.5%

Realtor.com report: vacancy surge hands leverage to renters

Realtor.com®’s January Rental Report shows the U.S. rental market tilting decisively toward tenants as average vacancy rates rise across the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas. The report finds the mean vacancy rate climbs to 7.6% in 2025 from 7.2% in 2024, and the national median asking rent falls 1.5% year‑over‑year to $1,672 in January. Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale says the shift gives renters more choice and bargaining power and marks the 29th consecutive month of annual rent declines.

The balance of markets shifts sharply: Realtor.com classifies 22 metros as renter‑friendly (vacancy above 7%), 22 as balanced (vacancy between 5% and 7%) and just six as landlord‑friendly, with Boston and New York among the tightest. The most dramatic example is Milwaukee, where vacancy more than doubles from 4.9% in 2024 to 10.8% in 2025, underscoring how local construction and market dynamics can rapidly change local negotiating leverage for tenants. The overall pattern reflects a move toward equilibrium after years of tight rental conditions.

Realtor.com economists stress that the tenant advantage is tied to supply additions in specific regions. Jiayi Xu of Realtor.com notes that new construction in parts of the Sun Belt and Midwest is creating negotiating room for renters, but she warns that advantages can quickly vanish if demand outpaces new supply. The report depicts a market in which renter leverage grows where construction keeps pace, but remains fragile in the face of rapid in‑migration.

Shifting local patterns blunt national trend

Despite the national tilt, several formerly renter‑friendly, job‑rich cities show reversals as inflows of renters from pricier coastal markets absorb excess vacancy. Pittsburgh and Richmond move from renter‑friendly into the balanced category, illustrating how relatively small changes in migration or job growth can tighten local markets quickly. Analysts say these localized reversals highlight the unevenness beneath headline national figures.

Construction and policy decide how long advantage lasts

Realtor.com warns that sustained tenant advantage depends on continued housing production and moderated in‑migration, and that zoning and policy choices will matter for long‑term outcomes. The report, issued Feb. 17, 2026 from Austin, Texas via PRNewswire, signals that policymakers and developers play central roles in whether renters retain newfound bargaining power.