U.S. metro vacancies hit 7.6%, boosting renter leverage as median rent falls 1.5%

AUSTIN, Texas, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Tenant leverage rises as vacancies swell, Realtor.com report shows

Realtor.com’s January Rental Report shows the U.S. rental market tilting decisively toward tenants as average vacancy across the 50 largest metros rises to 7.6% in 2025 from 7.2% in 2024. The surge in availability helps push the national median asking rent down 1.5% year‑over‑year to $1,672 in January, marking the 29th consecutive month of yearly rent declines and signaling “increased choice and bargaining power for renters,” Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale says.

The report classifies 22 metros as renter‑friendly (vacancy above 7%), 22 as balanced (vacancy between 5% and 7%) and six as landlord‑friendly, including Boston and New York. Some of the most dramatic shifts occur in the Midwest, where Milwaukee’s vacancy rate more than doubles to 10.8% from 4.9%, creating substantial negotiating room for prospective tenants. Markets such as Birmingham and Austin also figure among renter‑friendly examples, while formerly affordable, job‑rich cities including Pittsburgh and Richmond move from renter‑friendly into the balanced category as rising out‑of‑market demand absorbs excess vacancy.

Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu says new construction in parts of the Sun Belt and Midwest is contributing to softer conditions and greater tenant choice, but she warns that inflows of renters to traditionally affordable hubs can quickly erase advantages if supply does not keep pace. The report portrays a market shifting toward equilibrium where renters gain options, yet it underscores the fragility of those gains and the potential for rapid reversal if construction and migration trends change.

Local reversals and policy pressures

Localized deviations from the national trend are notable: several smaller metros show tightening as in‑migration from pricier coastal cities boosts demand, reversing recent renter advantages. That dynamic highlights how single‑city housing policies, zoning decisions and the pace of multifamily construction can override broader national signals and restore landlord leverage within months.

The Realtor.com report, issued Feb. 17, 2026 from Austin via PRNewswire, frames the current environment as contingent on continued building and moderated in‑migration. Without sustained supply growth and policy support for new housing, the brief window of tenant bargaining power could close quickly in many markets.