Deutsche Bank AG, UBS and Goldman keep faith in gold after speculative long unwind

Bank forecasts keep faith in bullion as speculative flows unwind

Deutsche Bank AG, alongside UBS Group and Goldman Sachs, is holding to a constructive view on gold after a sharp end‑of‑January unwind that briefly rattles bullion markets. Bank strategists are framing the correction as largely driven by speculative long liquidation rather than a change in fundamentals, and they expect demand from central banks, elevated geopolitical risk and a climate of lower real rates to underpin a renewed advance in the coming months.

The recent volatility reflects an outsized managed‑money exit around the Jan. 27–Feb. 3 window, Goldman Sachs’ futures desk notes, with record liquidation and a material collapse in open interest that forces additional selling via CTA and risk‑parity signals. That forced unwind produces the largest daily drops for silver and a gold decline not seen since 2013, before a partial rebound as the dollar softens and aggregate open interest recovers, prompting banks to reduce put‑call skews and reinstate bullish positioning.

Official and retail demand provides the fundamental backdrop that reassures large banks’ wealth and trading units. The People’s Bank of China extends monthly purchases into a 15th month, Kazakhstan lifts reserves by 66 tonnes, and Indian retail flows favour gold ETFs over equity mutual funds in January, underscoring continued physical and investment demand. Within this industry context, Deutsche Bank and peers see trading opportunities for bullion desks and expect client flows — particularly from sovereign and Asian retail buyers — to reassert upward pressure on prices over coming months despite episodic speculative volatility.

U.S. markets and macro calendar temper risk appetite

U.S. equity futures move cautiously as investors await a packed slate of earnings and macro releases, including Retail Sales, ADP payrolls, the Small Business Survey and import/export prices. Market volatility eases from recent extremes, with bond yields modestly lower and the dollar broadly steady, leaving sector leadership tilted toward cyclical names while defensive areas draw interest.

Wider commodity flows remain mixed, with precious metals showing the most dramatic swings and other commodities generally softer. UBS flags that silver ETF outflows in 2026 erase 2025 gains, yet stresses that central‑bank buying and geopolitical considerations continue to support multi‑year bullion demand, a view echoed by Deutsche Bank and major global banks.